Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup? Our Predictions

The 2026 FIFA World Cup begins on 11 June and for the first time in the tournament's history, forty-eight nations are competing for the right to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on 19 July. The field is the deepest it has ever been. The format is new. The host stadiums span three countries across the continent. And the question that football supporters everywhere are asking is the same one it always is: who wins?

Here is our full verdict — nation by nation, with the current odds, an honest assessment of each squad's strengths and weaknesses, and a final prediction for who lifts the trophy.

The Contenders

Spain — Favourites (approximately 9/2)

Spain are the betting market leader and it is not difficult to understand why. They are the reigning European champions, having won Euro 2024 in Berlin playing the most technically composed tournament football of any side in recent international history. Their squad — built around Lamine Yamal on the right, Rodri controlling the midfield and Pedri and Gavi driving the press — is the most tactically coherent unit in the tournament. De la Fuente knows exactly how he wants to play and his players understand the system inside out.

The injuries are the concern. Yamal had a late-season hamstring issue. Nico Williams has fitness doubts. Fermin Lopez is definitely out. And for the first time in history, there are no Real Madrid players in the squad — which reflects the club's poor season but also removes a core of Champions League-experienced winners from the group. Spain's biggest historical problem at World Cups is a different one: they have not won a knockout match since they lifted the trophy in 2010, going out to Morocco on penalties in 2022. If the nerves in the shootout format return, they could be vulnerable. But on current form and squad quality, Spain are the right favourite.

Our rating: 8.5/10 — the strongest overall squad and the clearest tactical identity.

France — Joint Favourites (approximately 5/1)

France are within a fraction of Spain at the top of the market and the case for them is compelling. Kylian Mbappe is the single most dangerous individual player in the tournament. Ousmane Dembele, the reigning Ballon d'Or winner, is playing the best football of his career. The defence — Saliba, Koundé, Maignan — is as strong as any in the competition. And Deschamps, stepping down after this tournament, has the motivation of a farewell trophy to drive him through every decision.

France's vulnerability is the question that follows every squad they assemble: can they combine their individual quality into a cohesive unit under tournament pressure? Griezmann's retirement has removed the player who best understood how to operate between the lines for this group of forwards. Camavinga's absence has created a midfield question. And France's record of underperforming their individual quality at major tournaments — going out in the group stage in 2002 and 2010 — is a pattern the squad has not entirely shaken. But when it works, as it did in 2018 and came so close in 2022, nobody in world football can match what France produce.

Our rating: 8.5/10 — equal to Spain on paper. The difference is Mbappe's individual capacity to decide knockout matches alone.

England — Third (approximately 13/2)

England's position as third favourites reflects exactly where the evidence puts them. The squad has genuine depth. Harry Kane is the most productive goalscorer in world football right now. Jude Bellingham has the capacity to be the player of the tournament. Declan Rice is the best defensive midfielder in the world. And the draw has been kind enough to give England a realistic route to the semi-finals without necessarily facing Spain or France before then.

The questions are the ones that always attend England at major tournaments. The full-back positions are not as strong as the rest of the squad. The penalty shootout history is the worst of any major nation. And there is the broader psychological question of whether this group of players — talented as they are — can maintain their composure and their performance level through six or seven knockout matches in the heat of a North American summer. Tuchel believes they can. The odds suggest the market does too, to a degree. 13/2 is fair. England winning would not be a shock. England going out in the quarter-finals would be even less of one.

Our rating: 7.5/10 — real chance, genuine quality, historical questions remain.

Brazil — 8/1

Brazil's 8/1 feels slightly long for a squad of this quality under this manager. Carlo Ancelotti has the most impressive trophy cabinet of any manager in the tournament. Vinicius Junior is the most exciting forward in world football. Raphinha, Martinelli, Matheus Cunha and a fit Neymar give them the deepest attacking unit in the entire competition. Marquinhos and Gabriel Magalhaes give them a defensive spine of genuine Premier League quality. And twenty-four years without the World Cup gives an entire nation a hunger that is difficult to overstate.

The uncertainty around Neymar's fitness is the biggest question. If he is fully available and at something close to his best, Brazil's attacking combination is arguably the most frightening in the tournament. If he contributes sporadically or not at all, Brazil are still excellent but slightly less unpredictable than the very best. The 2026 World Cup is in North America — a continent where Brazil have won before, in 1994 in Pasadena — and Ancelotti's management of elite attacking talent is unparalleled. Brazil at 8/1 looks like value.

Our rating: 8/10 — potentially the best attacking unit in the tournament if Neymar is fit.

Argentina — 9/1

The defending champions. Lionel Messi at his final World Cup. Seventeen members of the 2022 squad returning. Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, De Paul in midfield. Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez in attack. Emiliano Martinez in goal — the best penalty specialist in world football. The formula that produced the most celebrated World Cup campaign since France 1998 is largely intact, slightly older and still managed by Scaloni with the quiet authority that has won Argentina three consecutive major trophies.

The concern is Messi's fitness — a hamstring scare in the buildup raised genuine alarm, though he is expected to be available for the group stage. And at 38, the question of how much of the Messi who won Qatar 2022 remains available at this World Cup is the most fascinating individual question of the entire tournament. Back-to-back World Cup winners is something nobody has managed since Brazil in 1962. The historical obstacle is enormous. The squad and manager are good enough to clear it.

Our rating: 7.5/10 — the experience and the pedigree are real. Everything depends on Messi's availability and form.

Portugal — 11/1

Portugal have Cristiano Ronaldo at his sixth World Cup, Bruno Fernandes as captain, Bernardo Silva in the midfield and Rúben Dias at centre-back. The individual quality is not in question. The squad balance is better than it has been in any previous Portugal World Cup campaign, with the system now built around more than one player. Martinez has created a genuine collective rather than a Ronaldo support act.

The question that Portugal face at every major tournament remains: can they beat the best sides when it matters? They reached the 2022 quarter-finals and went out to Morocco. Before that, the round of 16 in 2018. The squad is the most complete Portugal have assembled. The opportunity is there. 11/1 feels about right — a side with genuine quality and genuine historical questions.

Our rating: 7/10 — quality throughout, but the record in major knockout matches leaves doubt.

Germany — 13/1

Two consecutive group-stage exits followed by an injection of youth and the return of Manuel Neuer from retirement. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala give Germany the most exciting creative pairing in their squad since the peak of Ozil and Muller. The bracket has been kind in the group stage. If Germany can build momentum through Group E and into the knockout rounds with Wirtz and Musiala performing, they could go deep in a way that their recent record has not suggested was possible.

Our rating: 7/10 — the talent is real, the recent history is the obstacle.

The Dark Horses

Netherlands (22/1) — Van Dijk leading a squad of fifteen Premier League players with De Jong in midfield, Gakpo in attack and the best defensive captain in the tournament. Capable of reaching the semi-finals.

Norway (35/1) — Erling Haaland at his first World Cup in a group with France. Norway at 35/1 is one of the more interesting outsider positions in the market. If he scores against France in the group stage, the conversation changes entirely.

Morocco (40/1) — Semi-finalists in 2022 who nobody takes lightly any more. In a group with Brazil, Haiti and Scotland, they could qualify from Group C and cause further damage in the knockouts.

Our Prediction: France to Win the 2026 World Cup

This is the finest France squad Didier Deschamps has assembled. The defence is the best in the tournament. The midfield, with Kante providing the experience and Zaire-Emery the youth, works. And the attack — Mbappe, Dembele, Olise, Thuram — is the deepest and most talented collection of forwards any nation has brought to a major tournament in the modern era.

Mbappe has unfinished business with the World Cup. He scored a hat-trick in the 2022 final and still lost. He has spent three years at Real Madrid learning what it takes to win the Champions League and developing every aspect of his game further. He goes into this tournament as the player most likely to be remembered by the end of it.

France to win. Mbappe as the Golden Boot winner. Deschamps going out at the top. It is the story this tournament is waiting to tell.

Prediction: France 🇫🇷

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